Gold Coiled Into a Running Triangle. One More Leg Lower to Finish It.

Timeframe: 2H · Bias: Bearish below 4,165.

Back in June my scenario on gold was patient longs out of the demand zone — one more dip, then an impulsive move higher on confirmation. I’ll be honest: that confirmation never came, and what the market did instead is the whole reason I’m posting today.

Rather than buyers stepping in, gold went sideways and coiled. For roughly seven weeks price compressed between about 3,944 and 4,165 in five overlapping swings, each smaller than the last. At first glance that’s a wave (4) contracting triangle after the strong, extended decline from 4,915. But look closer at wave (B).

Why this is a running triangle, not a plain one

The triangle begins at the wave (3) low near 4,030. Wave (A) then rallies to ~4,400, and wave (B) sells off to ~3,944 — below where the triangle started. That “running” of the B-leg past the origin is the defining feature of a running triangle. The rest of the structure follows the bearish running template cleanly:

• (A) ~4,400 → high
• (B) ~3,944 → the deepest low, running below the origin
• (C) ~4,200 → lower high
• (D) ~3,975 → higher low than B
• (E) ~4,165 → lower high

Two things make me trust the count:

• Alternation. The earlier wave (2) in this decline was a sharp, deep retracement — so by the rule of alternation I’d expect wave (4) to be its opposite: slow, sideways, time-consuming. A seven-week triangle fits perfectly.
• Position. Triangles form before the final motive wave — exactly where a wave (4) belongs, ahead of wave (5).

And here’s the part that matters most: a running triangle is a sign of trend strength. Wave (B) refusing to hold and running past the triangle’s origin tells me the dominant force — down — is powerful. That typically produces a firm thrust once the pattern resolves.

What I’m watching

The coil looks complete around 4,165 and price has rolled back under 4,030. If sellers keep control below the range floor near 3,944, my scenario is one more impulsive leg lower to finish the structure. Where several of my projections cluster:

• Wave (5) ≈ wave (1) equality → ~3,735
• Triangle thrust (widest width ~456 pts from the E reversal) → ~3,710
• Deeper extension if the thrust stretches → toward ~3,620

That gives a projection zone of roughly 3,800–3,700, with the tightest confluence around 3,735–3,710. Because running triangles signal strength, I’d give the thrust room to reach — or slightly overshoot — the measured objective rather than fall short.

Where I’m wrong

Above 4,400 the contracting structure breaks and this count is simply invalid. I don’t defend a broken count — I drop it and re-read the chart.

The honest lesson

This is exactly why I stepped aside from the June longs instead of forcing them. The setup never confirmed, price went nowhere, and waiting cost me nothing. That patience is the position.

The other side

I always keep an alternative. The whole drop from 4,915 could be corrective, not impulsive — a bottoming structure rather than a reload for one more leg down. Both counts hinge on the same line:

• Below 3,944 → bearish thrust into 3,800–3,700
• Back above 4,165 → the bottoming case comes alive, eyes on 4,400+

One level settles it. Until then I wait.

As always — this is a scenario, not a prediction. Price confirmation comes first. Capital preservation is also a position.