SpaceX made history. Now Warsh takes the chair — and the Fed might be done cutting for good.

The most volatile two-week stretch of the year ended with a record: SpaceX debuted at a $1.75 trillion valuation, jumped 19% to close at ~$161, and made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire — the largest IPO in history, and the market took down all $75 billion with little sign of strain. That gave a powerful counter-signal to the “who finances the AI age” fear that had crushed Oracle and Broadcom.

This week puts it to the test. Wednesday brings the FOMC — Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, with a fresh dot plot — and for the first time this cycle, futures lean hawkish enough that some pricing favors a rate hike over a cut. Here’s the setup.

🚀 The SpaceX debut — the buildout got funded

The largest IPO in history didn’t just price — it flew:

• Priced at $135, opened at $150, ran to an intraday high of $176.52, closed at ~$161 (+19%)
• Raised ~$75 billion selling 555.6M shares — surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record (~$25.6B)
• Valuation above $2 trillion intraday — the sixth-largest US company by market cap
• Musk became the world’s first trillionaire (on paper)
• The offering was oversubscribed ~2x with a tight ~4% float — structural scarcity drove the pop
• Ripple effects in the run-up: EchoStar (owns ~3% of SpaceX) and AST SpaceMobile both spiked on heavy options volume Thursday

Why it matters for the macro tape: the single biggest fear coming out of the Oracle/Broadcom selloffs was that the AI-and-infrastructure buildout would drain capital from the rest of the market. Instead, the market took down a $75B raise with little sign of liquidity stress — a genuine signal that risk appetite for the AI/space complex is still deep. As Dan Ives put it, an important moment for the broader tech sector. The caveat: SpaceX is unprofitable (a ~$4.94B net loss in 2025 on ~$18.7B revenue, after folding in xAI), and the valuation prices in flawless execution.

🏦 The main event: FOMC Wednesday — Warsh’s first meeting

This is the most consequential Fed meeting in months, for three reasons.

1. A new chair. Kevin Warsh was sworn in May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell (who remains on the Board). Wednesday is Warsh’s first meeting and first press conference as Chair — markets will parse his tone and communication style as closely as the decision itself. Warsh is viewed as more hawkish, and some reporting and market speculation suggest he could rethink Fed communications — including the future of the dot plot — though nothing is confirmed.

2. The risk has shifted. The decision itself is widely expected to hold at 3.50%–3.75%. But after CPI at 4.2% and PPI at 6.5%, fed funds futures have moved materially toward a hawkish path — with some pricing now assigning higher odds to another hike than to renewed easing. That’s a regime change from three months ago, when cuts were the base case.

3. A fresh dot plot + SEP. This meeting includes the Summary of Economic Projections — updated forecasts for growth, unemployment, and rates. With energy-driven inflation now in the data and a war premium that keeps flickering, the dots will show how many officials have stepped back from the easing path. If Warsh signals a change to the dot plot itself, that becomes a story of its own — a major communication shift on day one.

The setup: a hawkish hold + hot dots = the “higher for longer, maybe higher from here” narrative hardens, pressuring the freshly-repriced AI complex. A surprisingly balanced Warsh + softer-than-feared dots = the relief rally that the SpaceX absorption already hinted at.

📅 The week ahead

All times GMT, scheduled:

• Mon Jun 15: Empire State manufacturing · the week’s quiet open
• Tue Jun 16: Retail sales (May) — the consumer health check after hot inflation · import prices · FOMC meeting begins (day 1)
• Wed Jun 17 ⚡: FOMC decision 18:00 + Warsh presser 18:30 + new dot plot — the week, in one afternoon · housing starts
• Thu Jun 18: Jobless claims · Philly Fed · existing home sales · leading indicators
• Fri Jun 19: Quad witching (quarterly options/futures expiry — elevated volume & volatility) · flash PMIs

⚡ The week’s three crosscurrents

• Did the war actually de-escalate? Thursday’s reversal priced in a near-done deal, but Iran’s Fars stressed no final text is approved. Any weekend headline — signing or breakdown — gaps the tape Monday. The war remains the switch.
• Does AI earnings damage stick? Five names beat and fell (Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Apple, Oracle, Adobe). With no mega-cap AI prints this week, the complex either stabilizes or keeps bleeding on the “who pays” overhang — now with SpaceX as a fresh, unprofitable $2T member of the club.
• Does Warsh confirm the hawkish turn? This is the big one. The market has quietly repriced from “cuts coming” to “hikes possible.” Wednesday tells us whether the new Chair validates that — or pushes back.

🧠 Bottom line

The fortnight that just ended will be remembered for two milestones: the largest IPO in history, and the moment the market stopped pricing rate cuts. They’re connected. SpaceX flying on a $75B raise shows capital is still abundant and risk appetite deep — which is exactly the backdrop that lets inflation run and keeps the Fed hawkish.

Wednesday, a new Fed Chair inherits that paradox: an economy strong enough and an inflation rate high enough that the next move might be up. Warsh’s first words as Chair will set the tone for the back half of 2026 — and after a fortnight where the Dow swung ~930 points in a day, twice, on headlines alone, the market is in no mood for a hawkish surprise.

SpaceX funded the future. Warsh decides what it costs to borrow against it.