Oil Neared $100, the Canada Tariffs Hit, and the Dow Shed 628. The Fed’s Last Inflation Reads Land Thursday and Friday.

Wall Street came back from Labor Day to a wall of inflation problems. Stocks fell for a second consecutive trading session Tuesday as Brent briefly neared $99.50, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect, and investors braced for the final inflation data the Fed will see before deciding on rates next week. The Dow bore the brunt: down 628.18 points (-1.18%) to 52,786.07, with the S&P off 0.58% to 7,673.52 and the Nasdaq down just 0.32% to 26,421.41 — tech holding up better, for reasons that turned out to be their own story. The 10-year yield hovered near 4.8%, close to its highest levels since 2023.

Here’s what mattered:

🛢️ Oil’s sixth straight session higher

• Brent reached about $99.45 intraday before settling lower at $97.92; WTI settled at $93.03, up ~1.7% — a sixth consecutive winning session, its longest run since a seven-session streak in March.
• The catalyst: oil surged after Iran-backed Houthi attacks struck Saudi energy facilities, against a broader backdrop of renewed US-Iran strikes over the weekend and threats of further retaliation.
• The inflation problem in its purest form — feeding directly into the reports landing later this week.
• The yield backdrop: the 10-year hovered near 4.8%, briefly moving above that level before easing, and remained close to its highest since 2023 (it hit 4.818% on Sept 2). When investors can earn near 5% on government bonds, they get far more demanding about what they’ll pay for equities.

🇨🇦 The Canada tariffs take effect

• Live as of Tuesday: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs cover roughly US$20 billion (C$27.6 billion) of US imports, with duties ranging from 15% to 50%.
• Where they bite: the package is concentrated in steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics.
• Carney’s framing: the Prime Minister likened the trade dispute to being at war — “You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked” — said August 22, after negotiations collapsed.
• The timing: another cost input arriving precisely as the Fed weighs whether inflation is under control.

💻 The AI trade splits itself in two

• Software got hit: Salesforce and Intuit each fell about 4%, ServiceNow lost 5%, after OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release revived concern that frontier AI could compete with services supplied by specialized enterprise-software companies.
• Semiconductors offset it: Intel jumped ~9% and Qualcomm rose 3.2%.
• The pattern is new and important: AI is no longer lifting or sinking tech as a bloc — it’s creating winners and losers within the sector.
• The Qualcomm catalyst: a multi-generation AI data-center chip partnership with Amazon aimed at supporting AWS infrastructure — a deal Reuters reports could involve Amazon buying as much as $60 billion of Qualcomm AI/data-center products over time.

📊 Tuesday Snapshot (Sept 8)

• Dow: -1.18% → 52,786.07 (-628.18) · S&P 500: -0.58% → 7,673.52 (-45.08) · Nasdaq: -0.32% → 26,421.41 (-85.58) · Russell 2000: -0.5% → 2,960.20
• Second consecutive decline for all three, after Friday’s jobs-driven selloff (markets closed Monday for Labor Day)
• Energy: Brent ~$99.45 intraday (settled $97.92) · WTI settled $93.03, sixth straight gain · 10-yr ~4.8%
• Movers: Canada tariffs live on ~US$20bn (C$27.6bn), 15–50% · Salesforce/Intuit -4%, ServiceNow -5% · Intel +9%, Qualcomm +3.2%

📅 On deck — the Fed’s last look

All times GMT, scheduled:

• THU (Sept 10, 12:30) ⚡: August PPI
• FRI (Sept 11, 12:30) ⚡: August CPI + Real Earnings
• WED (Sept 16): FOMC decision — the meeting runs Sept 15–16, with Reuters reporting roughly a 60% market-implied probability of a hike after the stronger jobs report.

🧠 Bottom line

The market returned from the long weekend to find every problem intact and several worse. Oil marching toward $100 for a sixth straight session, Canadian tariffs going live across steel, dairy and electronics, and a 10-year yield near 4.8% is about the least helpful backdrop imaginable for a Fed already leaning toward a hike. Friday’s blowout jobs report gave the hawks cover — payrolls at 162,000 with a three-month average of exactly 71,000, after June and July were both revised up — and this week’s oil and tariff news hands them a reason.

That makes Thursday and Friday decisive. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday are the last inflation prints the Fed sees before it decides, and they arrive with energy costs surging and fresh tariff costs entering the system. Cooler readings let the Fed discount the labor-market strength; hotter ones do the opposite, with hike odds already near 60%.

Underneath the macro, the AI story is reorganizing. A day when Salesforce, Intuit and ServiceNow fell 4–5% on OpenAI’s newest model — while Intel jumped 9% and Qualcomm won a potential $60 billion Amazon partnership — is a different market than the one where AI lifted all tech together. The trade is picking sides.

Oil neared $100, tariffs landed, and the Dow gave up 628 points. Now PPI and CPI arrive — with everything pointing the wrong way.